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Are
Optimism And Faith Enough?
It is apparent that we have a true believer for a
President, and an optimist with an extraordinary amount of faith in
the wisdom of his advisors. Unfortunately there are few of his advisors
that seem worthy of such loyalty and blind trust. Those who advised
him of the wisdom of attacking Iraq without bothering to consolidate
our victory in Afghanistan certainly have done him, and us, no favor.
It is now amply clear that the possibility of any long-term consolidation
of our victory in Afghanistan is likely to be squandered. Worse it
appears that it will be lost in part due to their need to keep the
people at home in the dark about the consequences of military action.
Yes the military success in Afghanistan was substantial and important,
and so was the military success in Iraq, but unfortunately neither
seems likely to endure.
Afghanistan has been one of the most conquered nations on earth, but you can ask both the British and Russians what happens after the conquest is over and the real war begins. We are in the period of beginning the real war in Afghanistan, one in which the guerrilla forces have all of the elements of success on their side. They are living in territory that is as fragmented by its mountainous nature as is their nation by its tribal social structure. Where there is a loosely constructed federation of tribes with one usually dominating the others by force of arms can you even say there is a nation? Oh yes we can destroy those people without a doubt but we cannot govern them. Nor, it appears, can we help them govern themselves. Do you really want our nation to use its vast power destructively? If not then you must pay attention to what is really happening in both nations that we have so recently conquered. We did have a moment in time when with money and serious effort we might have made a real difference in Afghanistan. That time is gone and our presence is gradually becoming a shadow of what would be needed to stabilize that nation under a real democratic form of government. That is of course assuming that such a feat was even possible in the first place in a nation run by warlords and defined by tribal loyalties. I was among the skeptics but hope springs eternal and all that hokum. Unfortunately the cynic in me appears to have been closer to right than the optimist. The prospect of the government that we have installed in Afghanistan surviving is substantial if we support them militarily. The prospect that it will be able to govern much of that nation is negligible. Of course we had to move on the Taliban and Al Queda after the events of 9/11, that was evident and we all pretty much agreed that something had to be done. Our military did a marvelous job of empowering the Afghan rebels and removing the Taliban. Beyond that we have no real chance of sustaining that victory without a real nation-building effort. Nation building is something the imperialists in our government seem to think is optional. Nation building is the obligation of any conquering nation in the modern world. It is also far wiser a course than simply creating chaos with war and leaving the conquered nation in disarray. Unfortunately our homegrown imperialists have no stomach for the hard parts of conquest. They envision short victorious and popular wars as our destiny. They have the mistaken impression that nations once conquered will simply behave differently. Perhaps they will automatically default to Democracy because it is the best choice, but experience tells us otherwise. The chance of that happening without reconstruction and a serious effort to build a consensus-based government is below negligible. It is like the proverbial choice between Hell and Texas in which the devil got first choice of where to be Governor and our current President the second. Neither place is likely to lead to a valid experience of much use in governing a nation. Have you noticed the chaos in Texas lately? It seems more likely that Texas will erupt into civil war than that Iraq will become a Democracy soon. Iraq cannot establish democratic institutions without long and arduous nation building supported by an international coalition of more-than-the-willing. It will take an able committed effort funded largely by the US and Britain and supported by the rest of the international community. The philosophical foundations of democracy do not exist in Iraq today, nor does the sense of a nation governed by law. It will take time and reeducation to undo the damage done by the personality cult government of Saddam, if it can be done at all. Afghanistan is even worse when the effects of tribalism and radical Islamic leadership are factored into the equation. We have bit off a big mouthful here and the jaw muscles of the President's imperialistic advisors do not seem to be up to the job of mastication that they have wished upon all of us.
I hope we wise up before the next election. Otherwise we could have five more wars before we get rid of these deep thinkers; that would make seven nations we will have to reconstruct. Or we could just let them form a Democratic International ISlamic Union (DISU). This is a more dangerous world today than we thought it was before 9/11. Our imperialists are making it yet more dangerous with every passing war. An Islamic Union is not impossible to create. We simply have to raise the stakes high enough and try to rule the world with a pair of imperialistic jacks and a military of unprecedented power. War ending without an effective improvement in governing apparatus is proving to be a problem in Iraq. Consensus building is part of nation building. Without the universal consensus of the people regarding the legitimacy of any government developed in Iraq or Afghanistan no government can endure without our force behind it. God bless and keep you, our troops, our protestors and our imperialists safe in these dangerous times. |
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