The Iraqi people would like nothing more than for us to leave a puppet government behind when we leave. It would quickly give way to another Islamic based government unless we shore it up with a military presence. That will lead to further opposition to our presence and quit possibly greater activity on the terrorist front. We should be lucky enough to have as effective an opposition party in our own Congress as the Islamic parties will make in Iraq. But then that is our real problem here; separation of church and state is breaking down in this nation too.

The idea that the Democrats in Congress are weak enough to allow Bush to completely define our foreign policy around preemptive war probably dooms the Democratic Candidate before they are chosen. The prospect is great that the middle of the road voter that decides every election will vote for Bush. Quite probably the deciding factor will not be based on his stances on abortion, sex education, federal funds for religious charities or any of the many other religion-based platforms of his far right party. Those planks are there for the faithful forty million religion based voters. They are instructed in Church about whom to vote for and they follow those instructions. The middle of the road voter will vote for Bush because the Democrat is trying to be more Bush than Bush himself. This will only result in the Great Taste Less Filling Presidential debate that will leave the Democrat looking like Bush Lite no matter what he says.

Defining the Presidential debate and framing the topics about which it revolves is essential to anyone attempting to defeat an incumbent. Yes Bush has all of the advantages, and he will use them to the maximum effect possible based on how effective his use of 9/11, the war in Afghanistan and the war in Iraq all have been. His media team is three for three on those events and their impact on his approval rating. The worst thing that a Democratic candidate for President can do is fashion a campaign that avoids grappling with the issues on which Bush has based his popularity. If the war in Iraq is supposed to get him reelected use it against him. Keep a running total of deaths after the war was declared over by Bush and when they exceed the number lost during the war notify the press that their lack of coverage of that matter is tawdry journalism. Fight for the high moral ground. Bush lied to the American People on a matter far more serious than sex. War is a far bigger three letter word than sex make it yours not his. And please use the "Patriot Act Two" against him and his power hungry Attorney General John Ashcroft. That load of dynamite could blow him and his buddies out of office all by itself if people knew the details of the power grab it entails.

Unless a little known governor comes out of the hustings and succeeds in dethroning the likely national party figures who have money and recognition advantages over him we are doomed to four more years. None of the national figures fighting over the nomination can beat Bush. They are too co-opted by their tacit acceptance of preemptive war to gain ground by stressing that issue. The tax cut disaster that we are adding to every year is not going to be obvious until Bush is long gone. The simple truth is that none of them appears to understand how the Democratic Party differs from the Republican Party. It seems unlikely that they will be able to sell a difference that they no longer believe in, and that no longer really appears to exist.

Next year we face an election in which the candidate on the left is trying to move far enough to the right to get elected. They should be trying to move the electorate toward them and until they do they will fail in every election. Fear of your own convictions does not sell well at all in this society. That is what makes Bush so successful, he offers changes that support his radical views and people find it to be consistent and refreshing. They don't see the train rushing down the tunnel toward them, their social security and their job security; they only see the light on the front of it. That and the support of a right wing TV news system that promotes him twenty-four hours a day makes Bush a formidable opponent but he can be beat. Just not by the Bush lite strategy; that will fail. God bless and keep all of you safe in these undeniably trying times.