Henri Reynard Speaks Out

Reflections



May 20, 2005

It is interesting that investors, like voters, can so easily not understand who they are following. Men who bear sobriquets like, "Chainsaw Al" would not be my first choice to lead me to prosperity in the markets. Especially not my first choice when they have an unknown personal interest in the way the outcome develops. It may just be one that transcends their interest in how I prosper by following in their wake. The court case that just finished between Morgan Stanley and Ronald O Perelman is a case in point.

I would think that a man whose Patronymic derivative contains the root Perel (Pronounced peril one would think) would scare most investors. Perhaps pronouncing it pearl confuses them. In any case the small investor should be wary of more than the names of those they invest with in the market. It would be wise to learn that the most powerful investor's interests do not usually wind up coinciding with yours as a co-owner. They do not any more than they coincide with those they displace in management or those they fire in the work force of the companies they raid.

Dismantling companies has been profitable for the central figures in hostile takeovers. Their ability to partner with investment firms and peel back the skin on the surface of giant corporations has made a few men fortunes. It can be painful if you are an employee. It can be injurious if you were an earlier investor. It can be ruinous for you if you hang around after the first act is done and expect them to create real value. Their forte is the diminishment of wealth in the hands of others and seldom concludes with less in their own pockets. You are always one of the "Others" to these men, ask Morgan Stanley.

Of course such cynicism is possibly out of place in a world where it is accepted that we may have to destroy industries and their jobs at home in order to create them in China. If this change in our nation's status really begins to be in your interest as an investor, a citizen or a worker, any time soon, drop me a line. I want to hear your story.

Selling what you do not truly own is always profitable if you can get away with it. Sometimes it is called fraud, sometimes it is called genius but it is always bad for the buyer. In the slim hope that I understand a little of what transpired in the case I will attempt to elucidate.

Chainsaw Al had nearly finished his act with Sunbeam. Having carefully counted some of the money made during his tenure several times Sunbeam's accountants had prepared the company for sale. Mr. Peril, In control of a company called Coleman (one can only hope that name catches on) sniffed some blood in the water and the music began. When the dance was done nobody had any money made from that transaction as far as one can tell. Except of, course, Mr. Chainsaw who got away with most of his share of the swag from the sale. Mr. Peril looked around for piles of cash that could defray his losses and Morgan Stanley beckoned.

The old answer to why one should rob banks still makes sense and lawyers are more deadly than guns when used carefully. So Morgan became the target of Mr. Peril. Not Mr. Chainsaw who was exempted from the next round, based on soft targets being better than hard ones one would guess. Also, it is possible, because some smoking gun may have been created during the dance to prevent just such an effort. In any case Morgan Stanley came to regret ever entering the room with Chainsaw and Peril at their side.

First of all Morgan lost money in the transaction because they believed the accountants. They are still counting the same dollar multiple times elsewhere one would think. After all successful strategies seldom are abandoned gratuitously. Secondly the lawsuit hurt Morgan's public image and their stock price several times during this phase of the Dance Macabre. Thirdly they lost the lawsuit and one and a third billion more dollars because the judge instructed the jury that they were guilty before the trial started. That kind of thing has been known to sway juries, at least it did before the OJ trial.

A pause should be taken here to praise Mr. Peril. He apparently never once thought about anybody else except himself during this whole saga. Such single mindedness should be something we recognize and raise a monument to in time as it is nearly always historic by its nature.

In this short period of time the investors in companies like Revlon, controlled by Mr. Peril, lost most of their money. That is of course only if they stayed the course. Sunbeam fell under a cloud and remains there. Coleman lantern blew out and Morgan lost the lawsuit. Mr. Peril is still dancing but the Appeals Courts may revise the outcome before the dance is done.

The point is, knowing the nature of the players you are trusting to increase your money might be a good idea. If they are proud of their capacity for eliminating jobs and reducing opposing investors to tears think hard before you lend them your money. Morgan will be just as likely to fund a transaction for Mr. Peril tomorrow as they were before this all transpired. Banks have short memories and thus are not always good places to hide your stash.

My wife's cat is playing the kitty chase game with mine so I am getting full use of my chair today. The gardener will be here within a few hours to blow the leaves off my patio. He treats the fallen leaves no worse than Mr. Chainsaw and Mr. Peril seem to treat their co-investors.

One should probably never partner with the men who make money off everyone in the room and some people outside of it. Especially those who do it without regard to how much damage they create. They will eat your lunch and take the money you had saved for dinner. You may admire them if you wish but it is a good idea to keep your hand on your wallet the whole time and never open it in their presence.

The hawk has been visiting lately and the smaller birds get very quiet when he is in the sky. Birds know where the danger lies, humans are a little more complacent and secure. God bless and keep you all safe today, I am going to watch the birds and listen to their voices.


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